FEATURED CONTENT | strategy and research | June 23, 2008
The latest survey in the “Youth For The Win” series conducted with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows Barack Obama expanding his support among young people in the wake of the Democratic primaries. Obama now beats Sen. John McCain 60 to 33 percent in a named ballot for President, a margin that echoes the Democratic advantage in the 2006 congressional elections (60 – 38 percent). Obama’s improvement reflects three critical dynamics: his own improved standing in the post-primary period; the further collapse of the Republican brand among youth; and, finally, the “branding” of McCain as a Republican.
Washington, DC. June 17, 2008. While “choice” issues will not likely be at the forefront of this year’s election, a new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll commissioned by NARAL Pro-Choice America in 12 battleground states suggests that it could play an important role in building a winning coalition for candidate Barack Obama.… Read more»
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The latest survey in the “Youth For The Win” series conducted with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows Barack Obama expanding his support among young people in the wake of the Democratic primaries. Obama now beats Sen. John McCain 60 to 33 percent in a named ballot for President, a margin that echoes the Democratic advantage in the 2006 congressional elections (60 – 38 percent). Obama’s improvement reflects three critical dynamics: his own improved standing in the post-primary period; the further collapse of the Republican brand among youth; and, finally, the “branding” of McCain as a Republican.
In the face of declining confidence in President Bush and the GOP, Democracy Corps has completed a new survey showing Democrats with a seven-point lead over their Republican opponents deep in GOP territory. This survey of likely voters in 45 GOP-held House districts shows weak incumbents, a large pool of voters winnable by Democratic challengers, and a real ability to win issue debates and stand up to Republican attacks. The underlying dynamics of the race show that the battleground could expand even further into Republican territory in November.
As the Democratic nomination contest comes to an end, Barack Obama faces a real race, but John McCain faces immediate challenges — faltering popularity, an extremely damaged Republican brand, an imperiled economy, and an evermore unpopular war in Iraq. Still, while Obama is seen as honest and more likely than McCain to break the gridlock in Washington and bring change, he still faces a lot of skepticism on the change he offers.
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Recent focus groups conducted by Democracy Corps around the country reveal an environment of serious economic doubts with major political implications. Swing voters in the battleground — Orlando, Fla. and Columbus, Oh. — are scared about making ends meet, worried about the housing crisis, and see increasing income inequality putting a painful squeeze on a declining middle class. As the 2008 election approaches, the candidates and party that offer a real break from the Bush economic agenda will be speaking directly to what drives the desire for change in our country.
In this Democracy Corps focus group analysis, Karl Agne discusses the pessimism driving today’s political environment, voters’ intense opposition to the Iraq war, reactions to some of the latest political advertising hitting the airwaves, and attitudes toward the new Congress and the political parties.
Democracy Corps’ first wave of focus groups since the historic election of 2006 suggests that Democrats have several opportunities to solidify their gains with swing voters, and expand their support as they define themselves in the new Congress. These focus groups were conducted the day before and the day after President Bush’s national address on the Iraq war, and were heavily devoted to understanding attitudes about the war and reaction to the President’s initiative. We also explored voters’ takeaways from the 2006 election and their priorities for the new Congress.
View More Reports on Public Polls
After nearly a year of remarkably consistent numbers in key metrics of the country’s political environment, we are seeing significant movement as rapidly deteriorating attitudes toward the economy drive ratings of the country’s direction, consumer confidence, and President Bush’s job approval marks to new lows. Approval of Congress has also fallen, but the anger is not directed at the “Democratic Congress” which has seen a decline in its negatives this year - in fact, the country’s profound change dynamic has resulted in the massive Democratic advantage in the generic congressional ballot growing even larger in March.
Despite recent coverage of shifting attitudes toward the war in Iraq and the Democratic Congress, the latest public polls show the country’s political environment remains fundamentally unchanged, with President Bush and Republicans in Congress still deeply unpopular and Democrats maintaining a significant electoral advantage at the congressional level one year before the next election. Broad disapproval of Congress as an institution reflects the massive change dynamic still driving the electorate and is not directed at the new Democratic leadership.
Three new surveys released immediately prior to the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks and the progress reports of Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker show that the country’s political environment remains essentially unchanged - bad news for the White House and congressional Republicans. Most important to the current moment, attitudes on Iraq are unmoved and voters indicate little receptivity to reports of progress from Petraeus and the Bush administration. The wealth of data on Iraq in these new polls reveals a great deal about public attitudes on Iraq and how inflexible they are. Key findings include a clear sense that the surge is not working, skepticism of the Petraeus report, unwavering support for withdrawal and a clear deadline, and a clear belief that the war in Iraq is not making us safer.
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