Democracy Corps conducted a web survey of 2,710 voters from September 13 to September 19, 2024, in key battlegrounds for the presidential, House, and Senate races. The data includes a representative sample of 1,414 registered voters and oversamples of Black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters, weighted to reflect the projected 2024 electorate.
Harris is ahead in the Rust Belt states (829 sample), with a lead comparable to those of the public polls. That multiple surveys give her in a 2-point lead in each state means she is much more likely to occupy the White House.
But Trump has successfully focused on the issues that are animating the desire for change — prices and cost of living, immigration and border, and wanting change from Biden. He has changed the likely electorate, so the race is currently tied in the Rust Belt and Southeast (423 sample). With the Hispanic vote far short of 2020 and earlier, the mountain states (Arizona and Nevada) look the hardest.
But this is still Harris’ race to win. Democrats are running well in the House battleground districts and Senate races. Harris’ overall vote was stable from pre-convention, making gains with whites under 45 years & college women. Trump gained from the 3 percent RFK voters; 90 percent disapproved of Biden. Trump’s base of voters became more engaged, while Harris’ less. And Harris lost support and turnout with her own working class supporters, concentrated among Hispanics, white unmarried women, and working class women.
This survey shows how readily these trends can be reversed and how much room to gain with Hispanic voters.
Access the full key findings and report below:
