Big 2020 Juncture and Campaign Choices

Biden has come out of the conventions with an impressive 8-point lead in the battleground states,
but big changes in patterns of support that may assure his Electoral College majority, while
pushing down Biden and Democratic performance elsewhere in the country, according to our
battleground survey for the AFT and VPC completed the week after Labor Day.1 Biden’s
accomplishments are impressive, and they are likely to translate into strong results in the blue
wall states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine
where he has increased his margin from 7 to 13 points and doubled his margin in the Northeast
and Midwest.

These gains are the result of totally consolidating the Sanders primary voters who now give
Biden the same level of support as Biden’s primary supporters. That produced a further surge in
support for Biden with white millennials/Gen Z, particularly the women, on top of his impressive
support with women in the Rising American Electorate, particularly African Americans and
unmarried women.

Trump’s performance on COVID and Biden’s high scores on handling the pandemic have
allowed Biden to surge ahead with both white male and female college graduates that could
translate into more suburban seats in November.

But the white working class that comprises 44 percent of the registered are on a very different
and dangerous trajectory that will make Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Arizona
more competitive. The overall Biden margin in the diverse states has been cut from 8 to 5 points.
The battleground poll also shows the Democrats’ Senate margin in the big five contests down
from 8 to 3 points.

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