This survey, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner’s first battleground poll for Democracy Corps in 2007, finds the center of the American electoral battlefield has shifted as much since the 2006 election as it did in 2006 campaign. With an unpopular President and an even more unpopular war, Republicans are ceding territory and opening new areas for Democrats. Indeed, Democratic congressional candidates in this named ballot hold on average a 9-point lead in these districts that actually supported the Republican candidate by 1 point in 2006 and President Bush by 8 points in 2004.
Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner have completed our first Congressional battleground poll since the 2006 election, conducting 1,600 interviews in 70 Congressional Districts – half Democratic and half Republican – that constitute the seats most likely to be in play in 2008. The survey was conducted June 10-14, 2007, and shows Democrats leading 56-36 in the Democratic-held districts and holding a 45-43 advantage in the top half of the Republican-held districts. The electoral situation in the battleground could not be better for Democrats, as they are positioned to readily defend their own seats while further expanding their gains from 2006. In their latest strategy memo, Stan Greenberg, James Carville, and Ana Iparraguirre demonstrate how Democrats should remain on the offensive with bursts of engagement on Iraq – which is central to the structure of the race – and with bursts of progress on domestic issues that show Democrats are part of the change.