Maximizing the Congressional Vote

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The Democratic congressional candidates have made key gains in the fifty most vulnerable Republican seats over the last month, but an analysis of the almost 5,000 interviews shows that there are emerging targets that can tilt the balance further.


The Democratic congressional candidates have made key gains in the fifty most vulnerable Republican seats over the last month, but an analysis of the almost 5,000 interviews shows that there are emerging targets that can tilt the balance further. In our last survey in these Republican-held districts Obama is running ahead and is tied even in the bottom tier of most vulnerable seats. That creates a group of voters who currently support Obama but not the congressional Democratic candidate. With the partisan tide shifting, there is also a group of voters, called “Winnables” on our Voter Choice Scale – an algorithm that uses 8 questions to rate the probability that a voter will shift his or her vote before Election Day – that are most likely to switch to the Democratic candidate.

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