Next phase in battle for the House battleground
Last week, we released a new survey of the 50 most competitive Republican House seats and the 36 most competitive Democratic House seats and found anti-incumbent sentiment is high and cuts across both parties. Democrats have made important gains on implementing the Affordable Care Act, but the vote remains evenly split in the Democratic battleground. Republican incumbents have edged up in the most competitive districts this year, but they are below 50 percent, tethered to their unpopular party brand and still vulnerable.
The data tells us that Democratic incumbents and challengers get to their most competitive position by turning to “Speaker John Boehner and his policies that have hurt the economy and done nothing about jobs” and then putting the spotlight on Democrats’ economic agenda, which includes education and the women’s economic agenda. Such a shift, along with an aggressive effort targeted toward unmarried women, are Democrats’ best strategy for exploiting Republican vulnerabilities and establishing a persuasive dynamic in 2014.
Read our strategy memo here.