Rising Stakes and Electability: Presidential and Senate Battleground Poll

As the stakes in the US elections rise through each day of the pandemic, the country is sending a very clear signal about the Democratic nominee and electability. Democracy Corps conducted a 1,000-sample mostly cell-phone survey and a 2,900-sample web panel survey on behalf of the non-profit and non-partisan Center for Voter Information (CVI) in 16 battleground states. Vice President Joe Biden probably wins the Electoral College, in a matchup against President Trump; Senator Bernie Sanders probably loses.

In 2016, Donald Trump won the battleground states by a (1.4) point margin and the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by 77,744 votes, giving him his Electoral College victory. Democratic primary voters determined, since South Carolina and Super Tuesday, that Joe Biden was the leader who would have the best chance of defeating Donald Trump. Our new VPC and CVI survey proves them right.

In a general election against Trump, Biden wins by 4 points, 49 to 45 percent — a 5-point swing from 2016 in the battleground. He also wins by 5 points when third party voters are asked to choose. Sanders, however, loses a general election against Trump by 1 point in the battleground, matching Hillary Clinton’s performance in 2016.

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