Joe Biden has locked in his lead in the battleground states in a way that makes him a formidable opponent in the Rust Belt and blue wall states and in the suburbs. He now brings a fully consolidated and energized base, while competing for the white working class. The contested battle lines have moved to North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona. Democrats have raised their game in the generic congressional contest and the named Senate battles. This is based on phone and web polls conducted for the AFT and Democracy Corps and the 3rd wave of interviews with the CVI/Democracy Corps ongoing web panel in the battleground. (See the accompanying graphs)
Four things have changed the race: the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg; Biden campaigning for white working class voters; Democrats consolidating every voter; and GOP fractures becoming more visible with 17 percent who say they used to be Republicans until a few years ago.