This was a change election that was made amazingly close by voters wanting the middle class to govern, not the richest and for women to have equal rights. Harris ran an effective campaign that ran well with white unmarried women, women college graduates, Asians, and Cheney conservatives.
Trump won above all because of the border out of control and wanting him to deport the undocumented. Also, because of the economy and his economy “being good for me,” and calling out “woke,” liberal policies, including promoting transgender “operations” and “participation in sports.” He dominated which candidate was better on the border and immigration, every policy issue issue, including China, and who was a “strong leader.” President Biden’s high disapproval created strong headwinds with white working class voters, Hispanics, and millennials.
Trump and House Republicans gained and tipped the election at the end by shifting key parts of the Democratic base – white Gen Z voters, Hispanics and Blacks, particularly, the men and those under 45 years. One in ten voters decided in the last week, and a majority of those under 45 voted on Election Day.
The Democrats’ priorities in government and the last three elections with Trump made it key to champion the middle class and its priorities at this key juncture. They wanted safe communities with less violent crime, not open borders with competition for public services. They wanted the richest to not have so much power. They wanted help with the cost of living and opportunity for their kids. Look at the intense support taxing billionaires, the expanded monthly Child Tax Credit, and getting monopolies making super profits to help with high prices.
This election was lost by Democrats because of their weak support with Hispanics, white Gen Z voters, and younger and Black men.
The elite, activists, and leadership of the key groups are just not able to see what these voters really care about. It is most marked for Hispanics. They are the group most angered by current immigration policies and most in support of deporting the undocumented. They want education to provide opportunity for their kids, and they see Democrats prioritizing non-gender bathrooms and transgender participating in public school sports.
There are many structural reasons why Democrats have their current issue priorities, and it won’t be easy to change them. A Democratic presidential primary might have done that.
But there is no reason to think that Trump’s current winning coalition is at all stable. Much of it depended on running against Joe Biden in a period of accumulating anger over inflation, the loss of control at the border, and Biden prioritizing America’s legacy of slavery.
Trump has strong support for getting the border under control and deporting undocumented immigrants. Raiding hospitals and schools will get pushback but don’t assume he will lose support with Hispanics on the policy direction.
Voters are unforgiving if you don’t get prices down, and they are not looking for the oligarchs to shepherd huge tax cuts for big corporations, cuts in federal health care programs, and public support for working people the middle class.
Harris performed even more poorly than Biden with white working class women and men, indeed, worse with all working class voters. Addressing their discontent represents the biggest challenge facing Democrats.
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