Our co-founder, Stanley Greenberg, learned in polling for campaigns in Austria, the U.K., and Israel to respect the role of working class, nationalist voters led by a right-wing populist leader running against the liberal establishment and their ability to upset everyone’s expectations for Election Day. He also learned how to change our polling methods so as not to be surprised.
We decided to introduce those changes into a national poll conducted by Democracy Corps at the end of February, and it gives you a very different and realistic view of our current period.
First, it gives you a more accurate view of Donald Trump who maintains a 43 percent approval rating, unchanged after the insurrection. Most polls have reported declines in Trump’s support, but that is not true in this survey, as Trump supporters are no doubt declining to be interviewed by pollsters. Trump and his right-wing populism will continue their presence.
But Trump’s all out, accelerating race and anti-democratic war against the new America is creating a bloc of former Republicans — now 14 percent of this realistic electorate — who will be part this new period.
Second, this adjusted survey gives you more modulate positive perceptions of Biden. This poll shows Biden’s approval as 3 points lower than that reported in Real Clear Politics and 538. Biden’s approval at 51 percent is a majority of the country — but just that and no higher than his vote in 2020. (Obviously, this may improve with the passage of his rescue package, but don’t believe those giving him ratings of 60 percent.
Finally, this may all add up to Democrats having a slight edge at this point in this new polarized period, with its glacial changes from 2020. Trump war against Blacks, immigrants, crime, and cancel culture gives him a firm hold on about 43 percent of voters, but Trump no longer has the stage to call his own. Biden is 12 points above water and Democrats have 4-point lead in the generic congressional and larger in the blue wall states (+7) and 2022 Senate and Governors battleground (+11).