Biden’s State of the Union lifted his approval a bit, as well as his favorability with voters. It was comparable to gains from the DNC and much better than Trump did at the beginning of 2018.
Of course, the bounce could be momentary, but in the past, the direction of change has largely held up. Democrats, however, begin in the deficit on the generic ballot but need to make more gains than what we showed here.
Most important was the rise in voter engagement – all produced by Democrats — who reach a level comparable to Republicans. It is unlikely they can maintain that pattern absent a State of the Union.
While the speech did not move who would be better with inflation, Democrats made double digit gains on better jobs and wages, the middle class, helping your family, the family and helping with the cost of living. If Democrats build on that, the speech could be important juncture in the off-year elections. They also made big gains “on the side of parents” – which could relate to working family issues, as well as schools.
Democrats made big gains on putting party over country, but that was hurting them is some measure of how tough a year it has been for Democrats.
Democrats lost ground on immigration after the speech, trailing Republicans by 10 points on the issue.
Democrats did get some definition and branding. The speech produced a double shift on raising taxes on corporations, trusting government, and being favorable to the Democratic Party. The percentage with a warm view of the Democratic Congress went up from 41 to 48 percent. There was a similar rise on measures to address climate change.
The State of the Union seems to have created opportunities, rather than more obstacles, as Democrats address the mid-terms.