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A large sample of registered voters watched blocks of video clips from Biden, Trump and the other Republican candidates on the evening of September 13, 2023, using Q2 methodology from Stratalys. They answered pre and post in-depth questions, followed with dial meters and answered open-ended questions. This work was conducted by Page Gardner of PSG Consulting and Democracy Corps.
The election between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump is tied in the public polls, though this large representative sample has Biden with a 6-point lead. That small bias was likely produced by the sample of those willing to watch to 90 minutes of presidential videos. Nonetheless, this large web-dial survey shows the underlying structure of attitudes that favors Democrats in this campaign cycle.
Biden edges up in his standing after respondents see the full raft of attacks from Trump and the other Republicans. In this web-dials survey, voters see Biden’s launch video, his ads on poverty and leadership, and parts of a live press conference. They saw Trump describing Biden as the worst president ever, his attack on prices, crime, open borders, and attacks on the deep state and Justice Department, as well as at a rally. They also saw videos of Haley, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy. All of which attack Biden, government spending and the Democrats on the border and crime.
With Biden not talking about the biggest worries — cost of living, immigration, and crime —we anticipated voters turning their dial ratings down, with Biden losing support. This unique research will show the other dynamics that are helping Democrats.
One of those dynamics was Republicans being less consolidated than Democrats: moderate Republicans and Cheney conservatives hold the level of defection we saw in the midterms. Biden is running very strong with white college women. They respond with great negative intensity when watching Trump.
To see more key findings, access the full report below:
