In Democracy Corps’ national and presidential battleground surveys conducted this week among likely voters, Barack Obama has emerged with the first real, sustainable lead of the presidential race. Obama has taken a 4-point lead nationally, but more important, he leads by 6 points in the presidential battleground states (50 to 44 percent). This lead represents a 10-point swing in the battleground states that Kerry lost by 4 points in 2004 – a comparable swing to what congressional Democrats achieved in 2006.
This memo is based on a survey of 1,000 likely voters nationally and 1,044 likely voters in the presidential battleground states conducted September 28-30, 2008.
In their latest memo, Stan Greenberg and James Carville show that the potential for a big election is now very real again as the race has changed in fundamental ways in the last two weeks – and not necessarily for the most obvious reason, the economy and financial crisis. Obama’s gains as a person and leader as well as gains on national security, contrasted with McCain’s negativity, political maneuvering and failure to take the Republicans with him, have changed the dynamic of the race.