Winning a Cost of Living+ Election

Democracy Corps conducted a national web survey among 2,770 registered voters from Sept. 9-15, 2022. The data include a base sample of 1,270 registered voters, with large oversamples of 500 Black voters, 500 Hispanic voters, and 500 AAPI voters. The oversample data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, age, and gender composition reflects that of the estimated registered voters in the United States.

Democrats have moved into a small 3-point lead in the generic ballot because their partisans are now equally engaged with Republicans and slightly more consolidated, as GOP fractures grow.

But this is a volatile moment where two-thirds believe the country is on the wrong track, inflation puts cost of living to the top of issues to be addressed, crime and border issues could explode, and President Biden’s 55-percent disapproval still creates a strong headwind for Democrats, despite recent gains.

With two-thirds believing country on the wrong track and a big majority disapproving Biden, it is easy for Democrats to get it wrong. Engaging on the crime issue, for example, hurts Democrats. We get a reduced vote margin after we join the debate on funding and defunding the police. The biggest fear with Democratic control of government is Democratic cities facing rising homelessness, crime and attacks on police. So, this is not the time to elevate the crime issue.

To see the results and read more of our key findings, click on the document below.

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