Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Democracy Corps are proud to have produced the most accurate national polls in the last three weeks of the 2012 U.S. presidential election, according to Nate Silver of New York Times FiveThirtyEight, with a smaller error than any national pollster – less than 1 percentage point – as highlighted by the graphic below from Silver’s blog.
Our accuracy in this election reflected years of intense study and a series of careful decisions about key assumptions in our election modeling, including ones regarding demographic and turnout trends among pivotal voting groups, notably Latinos. It reflected our years of attention to the composition and dynamics of the “Rising American Electorate” – young voters, non-whites, and unmarried women – a set of voters who decided this election, and who will be a core element of the progressive coalition for years to come. And our accuracy reflected our intense focus on the methodological changes necessary to accurately sample the full American electorate – such as insisting on a higher proportion of cell phone interviews, despite the higher costs.
