The New Electorate

With over 3,000 interviews in the past moth, Democracy Corps has assembled a large database from which to conduct a deep demographic analysis of trends in the presidential race. Using this resource, we have identified groups where Senator Barack Obama is running ahead of Senator John Kerry in 2004 — including those under 30, moderate and suburban voters — and areas of underperformance.

Based on over 3,000 interviews conducted with likely voters throughout the nation in the last month and a half, this analysis shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 4 points.

Digging deeper into the data, we identify the groups where Obama is currently overperforming as well as the groups with which he has an opportunity to improve his performance. In our previous memo, “The Obama Gap,” we first identified the demographics where Obama was strongest and the groups with which he most struggled. This report updates our previous analysis and reassesses Obama’s standing now that the general election is in full swing. Specifically, we identify the groups where Obama is underperforming John Kerry’s performance in 2004 or Congressional Democrats’ performance in 2006. Obviously, Obama’s goal is to run better than Kerry did, but the Democrats’ 2006 performance provides a useful point of comparison for any aspirations of replicating the wave election of two years ago.

In this memo, Stan Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew Baumann examine the different kinds of voters Obama is strongest and weakest with and break down in which groups Obama has the potential to win more votes.

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