President Donald Trump closed this campaign by warning of the grave danger people posed by criminal and violent immigrants and from the Democratic leaders who support open borders and sanctuary cities. We think you will find that when the votes are all counted, Trump’s base strategy will cost him in the midterms. Trump’s base strategy has produced an intense anti-Trump reaction among Democrats, the Rising American Electorate of people of color, unmarried women and millennials, and all types of women, but it also produces an ambivalent or hostile reaction among parts of the GOP base.
A survey database Democracy Corps created with the help partner organizations shows that the Trump has been able to elevate his strong approval and the determination to vote among his Tea Party and Evangelical “Loyalists”, but they cannot match the intensity of the strong disapproval and determination to vote among all Democrats. When you look closely at this database, you can see this is a fractured Republican Party which includes some voters who will not vote to defend Trump on Tuesday and even some who will vote for a Democrat.
Before the results come in, we want you to have this close up look at the GOP base, based on our database of 6,069 interviews with self-identified Republicans conducted since April, half conducted in the past 2 months. This database includes responses from an on-going web-panel of Republicans in the battleground sponsored by Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, the first wave of which was conducted in September. The second wave among the same GOP panel participants is in the field now and will be released after the election.